What the Future Might Hold for Drones?

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has become a very important part of warfare in the modern times. Modern day militaries rely on UAVs to get accurate and real-time intelligence coverage of the intended targets . The UAVs are said to have improved intelligence cycles. Through effective monitoring of the targets, the movement patterns and behaviors of the targets can be noted in great detail . This allows the attacking force to pinpoint the weaknesses in the enemy’s defences and exploit it to the fullest.
Similarly, UAVs are now also being used in a combat role. Drone programs such as the Reaper or the Predator focus on carrying out missile strikes on the enemy . These drones are equipped with miniaturized smart weapons such as the hellfire missiles . This allows for an accurate strike while at the same time it aims at minimizing collateral damage. Such drone strikes are now becoming a frequent occurrence in Counter-Insurgency (COIN) operations. This can be verified by observing US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria and Libya . The rationale behind using UAVs in COIN operations can be put down to two characteristics of the UAV. Firstly, UAV is able to loiter and maintain visual on the target much longer than any other air or ground platform. This in turn means that there is a real-time update of the target and hence any contingency can be planned. Secondly, UAV does not involve any human participation in its operation. Unlike traditional air-platforms, the UAV does not require a human pilot for its operation. Rather, it is like a remote controlled aircraft which is piloted by human operators who may not even be in the same continent as the UAV . This means that during the undertaking of any mission, no human life is at stake for the aggressor. The non-presence of human lives makes it much easier for the leadership to undertake such operations. Due to the interest of the leadership in UAV programs, there is now an increased interest in making UAVs more lighter, stealthier and be able to carry heavier payloads. An example of this is the Predator-C or the Avenger. The Avenger is officially under development but it is operationally ready . The Avenger is said to be among the first generation of Turbofan UAVs as opposed to the propeller versions of the previous variants . Also, the Avenger will also have a synthetic aperture radar, allowing it to map 3D images of terrain and other geographical features . Another feature that is boasted of this newer generation UAVs is the Electro-Optical Targeting System (EOTS). EOTS was developed for the F-35 Lightning program but is now also being considered to be adapted to the modern UAVs . The EOTS is based on a variety of sensors that can help deliver precision strikes. Such modern versions of UAVs will translate into three advantages. First: it will allow for a much quicker response time and increased precision as compared to the previous generation UAVs. Second: due to the use of modern stealth features, the UAVs will be less prominent on radar tracking systems. Third: It will enable a more synchronized and in-depth reconnaissance of targets. These advantages might enable militaries to incorporate their use in increasingly hostile territories. However, these drones are hampered with some disadvantages. For instance, due to their relatively smaller wingspans, they can carry relatively lesser ordnance as compared to the modern jet fighters. Therefore, it means that there are hurdles in using UAVs for aerial bombardment campaigns or for air support to troops on ground. The UAV can prove to be useful in carrying out lone decapitation strikes but it cannot replace the conventional fixed wing fighter aircrafts in the near future. But should the UAVs take the path of replacing conventional aircrafts? For instance, the United States and China are investing in the development of low cost, miniature drones. There have been initiatives that aim at launching a large number of drones to overwhelm enemy defences. This phenomenon which has been called “Swarming” may help breach the defences of the enemy and allow conventional aircrafts to attack their desired targets without suffering losses. Swarming involves the use of hundreds (maybe even more) of drones that can then attack an enemy air defences and hence inundate them temporarily . This will allow the traditional attack platforms to attack their desired targets without the fear of facing a retaliatory enemy strike. A single human operator for such a large number of drones can be unfeasible; hence there have been tests on autonomous drones that can carry out a mission objective on their own The launching mechanism of such drone swarms is either air-air or ground-air. Air-air drone swarms can be launched through the use of fighter aircraft. Standard aircraft’s hardpoints can be modified to house 20-30 of such drones and then they can release